JF Ptak Science Books LLC Post 215
HOW TO USE THE BOMB Poll, 1945--Results
The results so far (August 23, 2008) from our Post re-offering the Chicago Metallurgical Lab's poll of July 1945 shows the results from 1945 and 2008 to be quite similar. Check the results for this day HERE.
Overall the results are fairly similar—of course there were no controls in the 2008 poll, and it was taken by more than just the scientists at Chicago who helped build the bomb in 1945, and of course people were asked to try and place themselves with some judiciousness back into 1945. So the results are necessarily problematic. Even so, I’m not sure right now how to interpret them.
The result with the greatest difference between 1945 and now was option#1—drop the bomb, drop it now, and drop it on a military target. There were almost twice the percentage of people in ’08 who chose this than in 1945. I’m not sure if I’m surprised by this or not—people today certainly know and probably could not put out f their mind that the Japanese didn’t surrender until days after the dropping of the Nagasaki bomb. Wouldn’t this mean that more people would think to drop it?
The second option, which frankly I thought would be the overwhelming choice in ’08 (the demonstration of the effectiveness of the bomb), increased somewhat by 25% to 46%. I was thinking that this number would increase to 75%. I would guess, though, that if the general public was given this poll (somehow) in 1945, that the overwhelming response would be option #1. After all there were millions of Americans in uniform and the threat of the invasion of Japan was tremendous. My suspicion is that this number would be gigantic, 90% or something like that, because by this point the country was swimming in reports of terror and blood and death, and that the chance of ending it all in one or two steps would have been almost completely irresistible remember: no major decision-maker in the U.S. government had any reservations about the military use of the bomb. There were private reservations on the use of the bomb among America’s top military men (Eisenhower, for one), but these men would not make the ultimate decision.
This is a curious result that I need to think about some more.
The results as of 23 August 2008:
2008 poll takers= 2082 people.
1945 poll takers= 150 people
1. Use them in the manner that is from the military point of view most effective in bringing about prompt Japanese surrender at minimum human cost to our armed forces: 26% (1945=15%)
2. Give a military demonstration in Japan to be followed by renewed opportunity for surrender before full use of the weapon is employed . 37% (1945=46%)
3. Give an experimental demonstration in this country, with representatives of Japan present; followed by a new opportunity for surrender before full use of the weapon is employed. 23% (1945=26%)
4. Withhold military use of the weapons, but make public experimental demonstration of their effectiveness. 10% (1945=11%)
5. Maintain as secret as possible all developments of our new weapons and refrain from using them in this war. 5% (1945=2%)
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